A study issued by the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, a joint initiative of Guy Carpenter & Company and the City University of Hong Kong, concludes that 2009 tropical cyclone activity in the West North Pacific (WNP) region is likely to be close to normal in 2009.

Based on detailed statistical analysis of atmospheric and oceanic conditions up to March 2009,

the briefing also predicts that the number of tropical cyclones making landfall in South China will

be slightly below normal.

The study also expects that near-normal overall activity, with 31 expected tropical cyclones, 18 of which are expected to be at typhoon strength. For South China, the study forecasts a total of four land-falling events for the year, with most of these events occurring between May and August.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation, an important determining factor in tropical cyclone activity, has been predicted as either neutral or weak by five of the six primary forecasting authorities.